The hottest global rubber market has tight invento

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Global rubber market inventory tension

due to the expectation that the weather in Thailand may improve, the market is very worried about the increase in supply. Last week, Shanghai rubber as a whole was only weak, followed by Tokyo rubber. This week, affected by the appreciation of the RMB, Shanghai Rubber broke through all the moving average and fell sharply, and the whole domestic rubber futures and spot market was shrouded in a weak cloud. However, the author believes that due to the tight supply of natural rubber, it will still exist until at least March next year. If there is no change in macro fundamentals, Shanghai rubber should not be too bearish in the short term

global rubber market inventory tension

as of November 10, the raw rubber inventory in private warehouses in Japan increased to 8580 tons, an increase of 14.4% over October 31. This is about 20.7% higher than the record low inventory of 7106 tons reported in August, but we must note that inventories are still unstable and still very low compared with history. Yunnan, China, has entered the cut-off period, and Hainan will also enter the cut-off period in late this month. It is preliminarily estimated that the total existing inventory is about 100000 tons. According to the law over the years, agricultural reclamation will hoard inventory for different purposes, and it can be inferred that agricultural reclamation this year is no exception. The existing 10 can be injected repeatedly to see how the repeatability is. After deducting part of the inventory, the quantity is not large, and the pressure of futures firm offer is small

the pressure of supply increase is limited

the current focus of the international and domestic market is the supply increase brought about by the end of the rainy season in Thailand. According to the 7-year average data provided by the World Meteorological Organization, the number of rainy days in southern Thailand is 22.7 days in November, 19.6 days in December and 9 days in January. Therefore, we believe that the pressure of increased supply must exist. However, based on our analysis of the historical output of Thailand and the world, we believe that the subsequent supply curve is a peak shape. This shows that the subsequent supply has the characteristics of large fluctuation and small average value. Looking at the global demand, except for the peak in March, the overall demand is relatively stable. The dislocation of supply and demand is the most important feature of the global natural rubber supply and demand law in the next period of time. Therefore, we have no reason to be too pessimistic about the subsequent increase in global supply

the historical experience of Tokyo rubber is worth learning from.

the historical experience of the natural rubber market tells us that in view of the special supply and demand situation of the fundamentals in each month, the global natural rubber prices are basically rising. Take Tokyo rubber as an example. In 2001, the Japanese Rubber Company reached a bottom after reaching 62 yen/kg on November 29, and then rose until March 12, 2002, completing a round of intermediate upward trend. In 2002, the Japanese Rubber Company reached a seasonally adjusted low point in November on November 20, and then went up the shock and reached a high point on February 26 of the next year. This round of market rose by 22 yen. In 2003, the rubber reached a low point on December 2, and then formed a platform for consolidation. The market began to start on February 5 of the next year, and finally rose as high as 18 yen. In 2004, the rubber company bottomed on November 26, and then formed a double bottom. Finally, the bull market in 2005 began on January 13, 2005. The domestic market also basically conforms to these laws. In view of the fact that Tokyo Jiaohe and the international market have completed a rebound in the market in the early stage and the subsequent increase in supply due to the improved weather in Thailand, we have reason to believe that the short-term decline is an adjustment of the market

the impact of typhoon in Hainan exists for a long time

recently, officials of Hainan agricultural reclamation revealed that the loss of natural rubber in Hainan agricultural reclamation exceeded market expectations. Next year, Tiantao DuPont of Hainan agricultural reclamation ranked 147th among the Fortune 500. However, the rubber output was only a mere million tons, which means that the natural rubber output of Hainan agricultural reclamation in the next year can only reach two-thirds of the normal output. The psychological support of shortage from now to next year is obvious. For a period of time, there has been almost no trading volume in the business centers of Hainan and Yunnan, but the spot traders are reluctant to sell. Can we think that because the domestic production areas of Hainan and Yunnan will enter the cut-off period and the low production next year, the current unsalable is that the spot traders store and carry forward inventory to prepare for if they do not have a satisfactory price. In other words, at present, the two agricultural reclamation companies seem to be measuring more than 6 points around the experimental machine when they are not willing to follow the decline of futures companies and drive down the sales price. Does the coexistence of high pending orders and unsalable goods mean that the domestic futures market has only fallen in stages and the overall upward trend of Tianjiao has changed

to sum up, eight of them become pure electric vehicles. Although there are fierce contradictions in the current market: the domestic spot price is higher than the import price, the domestic futures price is lower than the domestic spot price, and the international supply increases at the same time that the domestic cutting is stopped, the production cycle and seasonal law of Tianjiao decide that the supply tension in the future is difficult to be significantly alleviated, and the rubber market will still be in a pattern of supply exceeding demand. Therefore, Shanghai Jiao may form a relatively violent shock trend, and the callback space is limited

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